AI didn’t disrupt search.
It disrupted relevance.
New data shows: online business conversions have significantly declined — and continue to decline.
Since AI tools entered the market.
Not surprising.
It demonstrates two things.
First:
Downplaying the impact of AI on all markets — especially online traffic — was a misjudgment.
The impact is far greater than most marketers were willing to admit.
Second:
Citations in AI systems still “need to convert.”
But that’s becoming increasingly difficult —
because when the AI assistant already delivers the right answer,
there is no reason for the user to click the citation at all.
So what does that mean
for revenue?
for visibility?
for conversion?
We can see that the major players — Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Bytedance, Meta —
are building closed environments.
Look at Apple:
When you choose an iPhone, or any Apple product,
you are choosing to enter an entire environment.
Soon, this will be a reality for all ecosystems:
Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Bytedance, Meta.
These ecosystems offer almost everything people needs:
Search
Communication
Entertainment
Shopping
Cloud
Storage
Media
Mobility
When I move into the Apple environment,
I may no longer need Netflix.
I may no longer need Google.
Everything happens inside the system.
When I move into Amazon’s environment,
I have Amazon Q (Search), Prime (Entertainment), Fire, Shopping, Fulfillment —
and soon, likely their own browser.
Amazon doesn’t actually need a browser anymore —
because Amazon Q is already forming its own search layer.
From my perspective, we will enter a world
where shopping diversity — real shopping variety — will decline.
We can look at Germany as an example:
Once, we had vibrant city centers with small shops, owned businesses, unique places.
Then came the chain stores.
City centers became standardized.
Then came online shopping.
City centers became empty.
And I believe the same is coming for online shopping.
Small independent shops will no longer operate standalone.
They will have to integrate into central ecosystems —
Amazon, Google Shopping, Meta Commerce, and others.
The infrastructure already exists:
Amazon hosts, stores, ships, fulfills —
and soon will fully integrate these services into one ecosystem experience.
Google Shopping will do the same.
Meta will do the same.
Online will consolidate.
Everything moves toward ecosystem environments.
And within those ecosystems —
relevance becomes the new currency.
That is where we are heading.